How many people can planet Earth support? The population of the earth proves the bible The demographic race of the continents.

15.12.2023

The United Nations has released the 23rd World Population Prospects. By 2025, the world population could reach 8.1 billion people, and by mid-century reach 9.6 billion. There will be no sharp contrasts in life expectancy between countries; by 2050 it will reach an average of 77 years. The online journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics “Demoscope” talks about the key provisions of the UN prognosis Weekly»

According to UN calculations, Demoscope writes, population growth will continue until the end of the century, although it will stabilize in the last third.

In Fig. 1. Other scenarios are also given, each of which primarily depends on the birth rate.

Constant birth rate. If the birth rate in every country in the world remains at the level of 2005-2010, and the mortality rate stabilizes, then the world population will exceed 11 billion people by the middle of the century, and by the end of the century it will increase to 28.6 billion people. However, as follows from the UN material, such a scenario is unlikely, since in countries with high birth rates it is declining.
If by 2015 the birth rate in each country approaches the level of simple population reproduction (generation replacement), that is, the total fertility rate (TFR) - the average number of births per woman of reproductive age - will be 2.1, then by 2050 The world population will be 9.1 billion people, and in 2100 - 9.9 billion people. However, it is obvious that in countries with the fastest growing populations, the TFR is unlikely to rapidly decrease to 2.1.

Least developed countries will have twice the population of developed countries

The population of more developed countries will remain almost constant, slowly increasing from 1.2 billion people in 2010 to 1.3 billion people in 2031. It will stabilize at this level until the end of the 21st century.

At the same time, the population of the least developed countries will more than triple, increasing from 0.8 billion people in 2010 to 2.9 billion in 2100. According to the average forecast, the population of the 49 least developed countries of the world will exceed the population of developed countries in 2031. , and by the end of the century it will exceed it more than twice (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Population of countries with different levels of development according to the average forecast, 1950-2100, billion people.

The population of the remaining developing countries, including the most populous - China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, will reach its maximum, according to the average forecast, in the 2080s, increasing from 4.8 billion people in 2010 to 6.7 billion people. It will begin to decline slowly at the end of the century, reaching 6.6 billion people in 2100.

Demoscope comes to the conclusion that the share of developed countries in the world population will inevitably continue to decline, while the share of the least developed countries, on the contrary, will grow. The share of the population of developed countries has decreased from almost a third of the world's population - 32.2% - in 1950 to 17.5% in 2013. By 2050, according to the average forecast, this share will drop to 13.6%.

In developed countries of the world, the average annual population growth rate in 2005-2010. amounted to 0.42%. This is higher than the value of the previous decade, but noticeably lower than that of the least developed countries (2.284%). According to the average forecast, the population growth rate of developed countries will fall to zero in the middle of the century, and will stabilize at a slightly lower level in the second half of the century. In other words, Demoscope explains, there will be a slight population decline, which can be partially compensated by migration.

The share of the population of the world's least developed countries in 2013 was 12.5%, but by mid-century it could increase to 19% according to the average forecast.

Demographic race of continents

Throughout the 21st century, Asia will remain the most populous region, the magazine quotes UN experts. However, Africa's population will grow fastest. According to the average forecast, it will increase from 1.1 billion people in 2013 to 4.2 billion people in 2100.

According to UN estimates, in 2010, almost 60% of the world's population lived in Asia, 15.5% in Africa, 10.4% in Europe. Until the early 1990s, Europe had the second largest population among regions. In 1996, Africa replaced it - 734 million versus 730 million people.

The average annual population growth rate in Africa is twice that of Asia (2.465% versus 1.098% in 2010-2015). It reached the first billion in 2009, and according to forecasts, it will reach the second in 2040.

Asia's population will increase from 4.3 billion to 5.2 billion in the middle of the century, after which it will gradually decline. Asia's population is now four times that of Africa. And by the end of the century the excess will be only 13%.

Together, Europe, North and South America and Oceania have a population of about 1.7 billion people. It will exceed 2 billion in 2054, according to UN experts. In the late 2060s, the population of these countries will begin to decline, but not below 2 billion people before the end of the century.

Europe's population has already almost reached its maximum - 744 million people in 2017-2020. The population of Latin America and the Caribbean will peak in the early 2060s (792 million).

In 2050, according to the average version of the UN forecast, more than half of the world's population will live in Asia, a quarter in Africa, 8.2% in Latin America, 7.4% in Europe, 4.7% in North America.

Contrasts in fertility will decrease

According to UN estimates, in 2005-2010. The total fertility rate of the world population was 2.53, but this average masked significant differences.

In 2005-2010 in 75 countries of the world, including 45 developed countries, the TFR value was below 2.1 children per woman, that is, the birth rate in these countries did not ensure simple replacement of generations. The combined population of these countries is 3.3 billion people, or 48.2% of the world's population.

The remaining 126 countries, home to 3.5 billion people (51.2% of the world's population), had a TFR of 2.1 or more. This group included only 2 countries from the developed group (Iceland and New Zealand), the rest belonged to the developing group. In 31 countries, of which 28 were classified as least developed, the TFR was 5 or more children per woman. According to surveys and censuses, the decline in fertility in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa has turned out to be more moderate than previously estimated, or has slowed down altogether.

According to the average fertility scenario, by the middle of the century the number of countries with fertility below the replacement level will almost double and amount to 139 in 2045-2050. Such countries will be home to 7.1 billion people, or 75.2% of the world's population. By the end of the century, the number of such countries will increase to 184.

Demoscope draws attention to the trend of narrowing differences in fertility between major groups of countries. This is explained by two processes:

For the population of developed countries, the TFR will gradually increase - from 1.663 in 2005-2010 to 1.854 in 2045-2050 and 1.927 in 2095-2100.
For the population of developing countries, the value of this coefficient, on the contrary, will decrease from 2.687 in 2005-2010. to 2,287 in 2045-2050. and 1.993 in 2095-2100.

In fact, TFR in developed and developing countries is projected to stabilize at a level slightly below the level of simple reproduction—generation replacement (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Total fertility rate for groups of countries with different levels of development according to the average version of the fertility forecast, 1950-2100, children per woman

In the group of least developed countries with a higher birth rate, the implementation of the average forecast will lead to a continuation of the trend of rapid decline in the birth rate in the coming decades - from 4,531 in 2005-2010. to 2.868 in 2045-2050 and 2.111 in 2095-2100. That is, the fertility curves of different countries will almost converge at one point by the end of the century.

Aging motherhood and increasing life expectancy

“Demoscope” recalls the trend of a shift in the maximum birth rate to later ages - from 30 years. Postponement of births is partly due to the increased involvement of women in education and economic employment, the magazine comments. “The peak of fertility will shift to the group of 25-29 years, closer to the age of 30,” the material clarifies.

The “aging” of motherhood is clearly visible in developed countries. The contribution to the total fertility of women aged 30-40 years will increase from 42% in 2005-2010. to 58.3% in the middle of the century with a noticeable decrease in the contribution of the birth rate of younger ages: 20-24 years old - from 21.4% to 10.8%.

In the group of least developed countries, the age profile of fertility does not change so radically. But for them, according to the average forecast, the contribution to the birth rate of younger groups will decrease.

World average life expectancy in 2005-2010. was 68.7 years. By mid-century, this figure will increase to 77 years. And by the end of the century it will reach 82 years (note that now an average life expectancy comparable to this figure - 80-83 years - is noted only in a number of developed countries, such as Japan, Switzerland, Australia, France, Luxembourg).

In 2005-2010 Life expectancy in developed countries averaged 76.9 years. This is 10 years more than the value of this indicator in developing countries (67 years) and 18.5 years more in the least developed countries (58.4). In the future, life expectancy values in these groups of countries will gradually converge, the UN predicts.

Migration is dying down

In developed countries, migration growth increased from 2.3 million people in 1960-1965. to 17.4 million people in 2005-2010. In 2000-2010 The average annual migration “increase” of the population in Europe amounted to 1.9 million people, in North America - 1.3 million, Demoscope cites UN data.

Some developing countries - Thailand, Qatar, Malaysia, Jordan, UAE, Singapore - also have a migration increase in population. Yet overall, emigration predominates in developing countries. In 2000-2010 China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Bangladesh suffered noticeable population losses due to migration outflow.

In calculations until 2050, it is assumed that the migration increase in Europe will decrease by half, and in North America it will stop at around 1.2 million people per year. Emigration from Asia will decrease to exactly the same figure. In Africa, the annual migration loss will increase from 388 thousand people in 2000-2010. up to 498 thousand people in 2040-2050.

In conclusion, writes Demoscope magazine, UN experts predict an acceleration of the aging of the world population. The median age of the population will increase from 27 years in 2010 to 41 years at the end of the century.

See also:

MOSCOW, July 25 - RIA Novosti. The global population will reach 10 billion in 2053, but the number of residents in Russia and Ukraine will decrease by 7.9 and 9 million, and in Japan by a “record” 24.7 million, reports the Washington Population Bureau (PRB). ).

“Despite the general decline in birth rates across the planet, the rate of growth of the Earth’s population will remain at a high level, which will be enough to “reach” the 10 billion mark. Of course, the picture in different regions will be strikingly different - for example, the number of inhabitants Europe will continue to decline, while Africa's population will double by 2050," said Jeffrey Jordan, president and director of the Bureau.

The non-profit organization is now one of the world's leading global population forecasters, publishing annual reports and estimates of global population growth since 1962. This year, Jordan reports, the forecasts were improved by adding six new demographic indicators that take into account how the availability of different resources affects population growth.

According to new PRB forecasts, the world's population will approach 9.9 billion by 2050, and in 2053 it will cross the 10 billion mark. Much of this growth will occur in Africa, with its population expected to reach 2.5 billion by this date. At the same time, the number of inhabitants of America will increase by only 223 million, Asia - by 900 million, and the number of inhabitants of Europe will decrease by approximately 12 million.

The world's population will exceed 10 billion people by 2100The world's population will exceed 10 billion by 2100, and perhaps approach 15 billion if the world's birth rate increases slightly, according to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), presented on Wednesday in London.

The main socio-demographic problem of this growth will be that almost all of this growth will occur in the most underdeveloped countries on Earth. PRB estimates that the population of the world's 48 least developed countries will double by 2050 to almost two billion people. At the same time, in 29 countries on this list, almost all of which are in Africa, the population will more than double. Niger's population, for example, will triple by mid-century.

On the other side of the “table of ranks” the situation is the opposite - the population will decrease mainly in all developed countries except the United States, in a total of 42 countries of the world. The traditional “leader” in this regard will be Japan, where the number of inhabitants will decrease by almost 25 million, and its close competitors will be Russia, Ukraine and Romania.

The world population on January 1, 2016 will be almost 7.3 billion peopleThe most populated country, according to statistics, is China, followed by India and the United States. Russia, with 142.423 million inhabitants, ranks ninth.

With all this, the top three “ten” countries in terms of population will remain the same - India, China and the USA. There will be a series of reshuffles below, with Nigeria moving up to fourth, Indonesia down to fifth and Brazil down to seventh.

Such population growth in the poorest and most deprived countries of the world, according to PRB experts, speaks to the urgent need for a speedy transition to a sustainable development economy to provide this mass of people with the necessary resources and basic necessities without causing critical harm to the planet.

If evolution is correct, then the population of the Earth would be 75,000 people per square centimeter in 3 million years (7500 people per 1 cm2), despite all the wars and natural disasters! Then the world would be overcrowded, but it is not.

From a biblical point of view, everything fits: The Bible says that in the days of Noah only 8 people survived the Flood and over 4400 years the population of 7.5 billion people is understandable.

Difficulties

Evolutionary communities o is definitely having difficulty coordinating the numbers to make this ridiculous scenario possible. If we assume, on the basis of biblical genealogies, that the flood occurred approximately 4300 years ago and also against evolution, the duration of a generation is 38 years, then it turns out that only 113 generations have passed since the Great Flood of the time of Noah.

According to these calculations, there should be approximately seven billion people on Earth - 6.7 × 109 . This is very close to the population size to that provided by the American Census Bureau - 6.9 × 109.

This evidence supports the young age of the Earth and humanity. Only a dishonest person, having examined such clear evidence, will not attach any importance to it.

Yet this attitude prevails in many scientific circles today. The same people who claim that they, unlike believers, are those who examine the evidence without prejudice and draw only those conclusions that are supported by that evidence - turn away from the evidence when it does not agree with their goals and plans.

This definitely reflects the mentality of many in the scientific community. Evolution cannot explain human existence. The biblical model can... and does explain.

Human population growth. An annual increase of less than 0.5% of 8 people could provide today's population in 4,500 years. Where are all the people if we have been on Earth much longer?

If people, while on this planet, reproduced for one million years, then, even according to the most conservative estimates, more than 26,000 generations have passed. But currently there are about seven and a half billion people. However, according to the equation and statistics today there should be more 100 billion man on Earth, if, of course, reproduction began a million years ago. To visualize this number, think about this analogy.

Overpopulation of the planet is a MYTH based only on speculation, ignorance and active propaganda of interested organizations. At the moment, 7.5 billion people can be comfortably accommodated on territories Australia , which occupies only some 5% of the world's landmass + each person will have about a thousand square meters, and their living conditions will be very comfortable.

And if this is done theoretically, then it will still remain uninhabited about one million square kilometers.

Another reason. If people have lived on earth for tens of thousands of years, then the population of the earth should be larger and the number of burials should also be much larger. However, the world population is quite consistent with the fact that the world's population was once reduced to 8 people during the flood.

If over several decades, the number of people has increased by 1 billion, then how can about 7.5 billion people live on earth?

1 billion - 1820
2 billion - 1927
3 billion - 1960
4 billion - 1974
5 billion - July 1987
6 billion - October 1999
7 billion - October 31, 2011
7.5 billion - March 1, 2017

Length of documented history. Origin of various civilizations, writing, etc. at about the same time, several thousand years ago.

"Stone Age" human skeletons and artifacts. They are not enough even for 100 thousand years with a population of only 1 million, and what can we say about an even larger number (10 million?)

Common cultural "myths" talk about the recent division of the peoples of the world. An example of this is the frequency of stories about a flood destroying the earth. For example, Ancient Chinese hieroglyphs preserve the history of Genesis.

Origin of agriculture. It is believed that agriculture was founded 10 thousand years ago, while, according to the same chronology, it is believed that humans have been living on earth for more than 200 thousand years. Obviously, someone must have figured out how to plant plants and get their own food much earlier.

Languages. Similarities in languages that are said to be many tens of thousands of years apart argue against their supposed age.

Population growth. To determine population growth, it is necessary to know three values: the average number of children in a family, the average age of a generation and the average life expectancy. Using these generally accepted parameters, we will calculate, based on chapter 5 of the book of Genesis, the approximate number of inhabitants of the antediluvian world.

We get the following data: the average life expectancy is 500 years, the average age of a generation is 100 years, and if we assume that the average number of children in a family is six, it turns out that 235 million people lived on the planet before the flood. If we take into account that, according to the theory of evolution, man has existed on earth for a million years, and the average age of a generation is 35 years (taking into account epidemics, wars, and accidents), then it turns out that there have been 28,600 generations on earth.

And if we take into account that each family on average had two children (we are deliberately underestimating this figure), it turns out that by our time the population of the earth should have amounted to an immeasurable fantastic figure: ten to the power of five thousand people! According to the study of world population growth, our planet exists more than 4000 years after the flood, which exactly corresponds to the data of the Bible (H. M. Morris ed. Scientific Creationism (public school), San Diego, 1974, p. 149-157; 185-196.)

Can the Earth withstand overpopulation? The issue of the size of the world population is very acute. Its exponential and uneven growth could have catastrophic consequences if we do not prepare for it.

In 2013, humanity reached 7.9 billion people. It is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.6 billion by 2050. If that's not enough, consider 11.2 billion in 2100.

Most of the growth will be seen in nine specific countries: India, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria, the United States and Indonesia.

Population growth rates

It is not an increase in fertility that leads to growth. Rather, it will play a role in increasing life expectancy. World population growth peaked in the 1960s and has been declining steadily since the 70s. The figure of 1.24% is the growth rate recorded ten years ago and occurs annually. Today it is 1.18% per year.

Population growth in developed countries has slowed because it is too expensive for large parts of the population to have a child, especially since the Great Recession, when young people were forced to spend long periods of time on education and careers, spending their most productive years in lecture halls and office cubicles.

Although overall fertility is declining worldwide, the report said the researchers used a "low-variance" population growth scenario.

Meanwhile, families with large numbers of children are becoming a thing of the past, and public health officials are warning that a "silver tsunami" is coming. Globally, the number of people aged 60 or over is expected to double by 2050 and triple by 2100.

As young people do not replace adult residents, the number of taxpayers for Medicare and abroad for socialized medicine will decline.

Europe's population is forecast to fall by 14%. Society in European countries, like Japan, is in favor of adjusting the aging population. But a fertility deficit probably won't fix the problem.

In the US, the number of Alzheimer's patients is expected to bankrupt Medicare as no cure has been found. “Developed countries have pretty much painted themselves into a corner,” said Carl Haub. He is a senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau.

Role of African countries

Most of the growth will occur in developing countries. Moreover, more than half is predicted in Africa, the financially poorest continent, whose resources are almost exhausted. The 15 high-income countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to increase the number of children per woman at a rate of just over 5% (five children per woman). Nigeria's population is likely to surpass that of the United States by 2050, becoming the third largest demographic.

The population in developed countries is expected to remain stable at 1.3 billion. In some developing countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and China, the average number of children per woman is falling rapidly. This trend is expected to continue.

India's population expected to exceed China's by 2022

We often think of China as the most populous country in the world, but India is on track to overtake it by 2022. At this point, 1.45 billion citizens will live in both countries. Subsequently, India is expected to surpass China. As India's population grows, the number of Chinese citizens will decline.

Lifespan

In terms of life expectancy, there will be an increase in both developed and developing countries. Globally, life expectancy is likely to be 76 years between 2045 and 2050. If nothing changes, she will reach 82 years of age between 2095 and 2100.

Towards the end of the century, people in developing countries will be able to expect to live up to 81 years, while in developed countries 89 years will become the norm. However, there are fears that this phenomenon will cause the developing world to suffer even more than it does today.

“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries poses many challenges that will make it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, fight hunger and malnutrition, and expand education and health care,” says John Wilmot. He is the Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Reducing resources

It will be very difficult for people to withstand the depletion of resources. Minerals, fossil fuels, wood and water may become scarce in several regions of the world.

Since wars are often resource-related and water use is expected to rise to 70-90% by mid-century, without improved agricultural practices and smarter use it could become as expensive as oil and drag countries into violent conflicts. Water supplies are already a big problem in some regions. India and China, for example, have already clashed twice over this resource.

Climate change

Climate change is also likely to reduce the amount of arable land, causing food shortages as well as loss of biodiversity. These processes are likely to occur at a rapid pace.

To help reduce the world's population, UN researchers suggest investing in reproductive health and family planning. These programs are especially relevant in developing countries.

This report is based on data from 233 countries providing demographic data, as well as the 2010 census.