Thomas Robert Malthus and his Essay on the Law of Population. The main provisions of the theory of population of Malthus Synopsis of the work of Malthus experience on the law of population

Plan.

1. Brief biographical sketch.

2. Introduction.

3. "Experience on the law of population."

4. The empirical content of the theory.

5. The theory of optimal population size and subsistence wage.

6. Malthusianism today. Output.

Brief biographical sketch.

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) is a prominent representative of the classical political economy of England. The work of this scientist was formed mainly in the first quarter of the 19th century, but the results of his scientific research are also valuable for modern economic theory.

Thomas Malthus was born in the countryside near London in the family of a landowner. His father was an educated man, he made acquaintance with the philosophers and economists of his time.

As the youngest son of T. Malthus, according to custom, a spiritual career was intended. Therefore, it is no coincidence that after graduating from the College of Cambridge University, he took the clergy and received the position of the second priest in the rural parish. However, the young Malthus, who always gravitated towards science, from 1793 began to simultaneously teach at the college. At the same time, he devoted all his free time to the study of the problem of the relationship between economic processes and natural phenomena that captured him in his youthful conversations and discussions with his father.

Of the main stages in the biography of Malthus, it is also important to point out the fact that he married rather late, at the age of 39, and had three sons and one daughter.

In 1798, an anonymously published book entitled An Essay on the Law of Population appeared. Its author turned out to be an unmarried young pastor - the future scientist-economist T. Malthus, who caused innumerable attacks on himself. Largely for this reason, or rather, to improve his work, he during the years 1799-1802. makes a trip to a number of European countries. And five years later, this time under his own name, in 1803 he published the second edition of this book (in total, during his lifetime, six editions were published in increasing circulation over and over again).

Malthus's talent as a research scientist and teacher with more than a decade of experience did not go unnoticed. In 1805 he accepted the chair offered to him as professor of modern history and political economy at the newly founded college of the East India Company, where he also served as chaplain.

Continuing his scientific research, in 1815 T. Malthus published another work, the first words of the title of which repeat the title of the famous "Wealth of Nations" by A. Smith. he became the book "A Study on the Nature and Growth of Land Rent". In this essay, T. Malthus, proceeding from the natural nature of rent, tried to reveal the mechanism of its formation and growth, to substantiate the significance of this type of income in the sale of the total product produced in society. However, he made his final judgment on rent and some other problems of the economy later, in 1820. In that year, Malthus published his main creative work, “Principles of Political Economy, Considered in the Expectation of Their Practical Application”, which, in theoretical and methodological terms, did not had significant significant differences from the famous "Principles of Political Economy" published three years earlier by his friend D. Ricardo.

The subject of study.

T. Malthus, like other classics, saw the main task of political economy in increasing, thanks primarily to the development of the sphere of production, the material wealth of society. At the same time, a certain feature of his views in this regard was the first attempt to link the problems of economic growth of the population, because before him in economic science it was considered as if "indisputable" that in a liberal economy, the larger the population and the rate of its growth, the supposedly more beneficial. this will affect the development of the national economy, and vice versa.

Study Method.

The originality of the methodological principles of T. Malthus is obvious from the fact that, while unconditionally accepting the concept of economic liberalism, he was able at the same time to substantiate his prediction of the relationship between economic and population growth rates from scientific positions. After all, his theory of population has become, as they themselves admitted, an integral part of the methodological base of both Ch. Darwin and D. Ricardo, and many other scientists of world renown. Moreover, from the point of view of the novelty of the methodology, the value of the Malthusian theory of population lies in the fact that it allows us to study important analytical conclusions for the development of an appropriate national economic policy to overcome the causes of poverty, due to a simple ratio of the growth rate of life's goods, determined by the so-called subsistence minimum.

Theory of population.

This theory, expounded by T. Malthus in the book "Experience on the law of population", from a short pamphlet in the first edition, in all the rest was a capacious study. As A. Marshall believes, in its first editions, the course of reasoning of T. Malthus was aimed at proving that “all the peoples about whose history there are reliable data were so prolific that their increase

numbers would have been rapid and continuous if it had not been delayed either by a lack of means of subsistence, or ... by diseases, wars, the killing of newborns, or, finally, voluntary abstinence. But already in the second and subsequent editions, he clarifies, “Malthus builds his research on such a large number and on such a careful selection of facts that he can claim a place among the founders of historical and economic science.

Indeed, the central idea of ​​the Malthusian theory of the influence of the size and rate of population growth on the well-being of society is, in principle, correct and relevant.

Homo sapiens - a reasonable person as a species of living beings - has existed on the planet for about 100 thousand years, but only about 8 thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth. The number of earthlings increased very slowly, while they lived by hunting and gathering, led a nomadic lifestyle. But with the transition to settled agriculture, to new forms of production, especially industry, the number of people began to increase rapidly and by the middle of the 18th century amounted to about 800 million. Then came a period of ever-increasing acceleration of population growth on Earth. Approximately in 1820, the number of earthlings reached 1 billion. In 1927, this number doubled. The third billion was recorded in 1959, the fourth - already 15 years later, in 1974, and just 13 years later, July 11, 1987, was declared by the UN "the birthday of the 5 billionth person." This year, 1999, the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet was recorded.

Although the rate of population growth in the world is slowly declining, the absolute growth rate is growing rapidly. For example, if in 1988 the increase was 86 million people. per year, then in the early 90s. it has already exceeded 90 million people a year. This means that every day there are a quarter of a million more people in the world.

"An Essay on the Law of Population".

In the first book, T. Malthus defines the law of population as a manifestation in all living beings of a constant desire to "multiply faster than is allowed by the amount of food at their disposal." And it is precisely to the study of the consequences of this “great law, closely connected with human nature, which has been in effect since the time of the origin of societies”, that Malthus devotes his work “An Essay on the Law of Population”.

On January 17 of this year, the first meeting of a large cycle dedicated to Malthusianism was held. This topic is directly related to the formulation of environmental issues, as a through thought passes through the Club of Rome and through the concept of sustainable development.
Thomas Robert Malthus (eng. Thomas Robert Malthus, he usually omitted his middle name; 1766-1834) - English priest and scientist, demographer and economist, author of the theory that uncontrolled population growth should lead to famine on Earth. In 1798 he published his Essay on the Principle of Population.

Malthusianism has firmly entered Western socio-economic thought and has had a significant impact on the development of current political thought.
In general terms, the key thoughts of the Essay are:
- Due to the biological desire of a person to procreate, there are more children than can be fed, thereby the poor are doomed to poverty.
- Population should be strictly limited to the means of subsistence, and those who have no means should refrain from having children. Social support for the poor is harmful, because, on a national scale, the funds are still not enough.

Malthus himself writes the following: It is necessary to openly renounce the supposed right of the poor to be supported at the public expense ... the simple duty of every person to take care of the existence of his children and would be reminded of the folly and immorality of those who marry without hope of fulfilling this sacred duty...

It is this position that is the forerunner of the reluctance to “produce poverty”, as well as the ideological basis of the so-called “family planning”, the essence of which is to spread contraception and legalize abortion, primarily in the poor and developing countries.

The quintessence of this approach lies in the idea that the public good is such a “pie”, which, by definition, is not enough for everyone. Therefore, the number of "eaters" should be limited.
The views of Malthus are based not only on the concept of the limited nature of the social product, but also largely on Protestant ethics: the personal good of a person is the result of only his achievements. This implies property inequality, as a result of one's own labor. And any benefits and social assistance is an evil that corrupts people, acting under plausible pretexts.

Here is what Malthus writes about this:
“It is obvious that with the help of money and generous efforts on the part of the rich, a significant improvement in the situation of all the families of the parish, even a single district, can be achieved. But it is worth considering to see that this means will prove powerless when we want to apply it to the whole country, if at the same time a regular expulsion of the excess population is not instituted, or if we do not expect to find among the poor a special virtue, which is usually destroyed by just such benefits.

…
In general, it has been observed that the middle position in society is most favorable for the development of virtue, industry, and all kinds of talents. But obviously not all people can belong to the middle class. The upper and lower classes are inevitable and, moreover, very useful. If there were no hope for advancement and fear of decline in society, if diligence were not followed by remuneration, and laziness by punishment, then there would be no activity and zeal that impel every person to improve his position and which are the main engine of social well-being.
…

If, in the distant future, the poor acquire the habit of prudently regarding the question of marriage, which turns out to be the only means for a general and continuous improvement in their lot, I do not think that even the most limited politician will find reason to sound the alarm that, thanks to high wages, our rivals will produce goods cheaper than us and may force us out of foreign markets. Four circumstances would prevent or counterbalance such a consequence: 1) a lower and more uniform price of food, the demand for which would rarely exceed supply; 2) the abolition of the tax in favor of the poor would free agriculture from the burden, and wages from the useless increase; 3) society would save huge sums wasted on children who die prematurely from poverty, and 4) the general spread of the habit of work and thrift, especially among single people, would prevent laziness, drunkenness and extravagance, which at present are often consequence of high wages.
It should be noted that it is the idea that a member of society does not have the right to count on support from him, that the benefits received from society can only corrupt a person - is the basic essential postulate of liberalism with its neoliberal followers (Friedman and his "Chicago school"). Adjacent to this is the "American dream" and its "society of equal opportunities"
It should be noted that this "Protestant utopia" does not fit well with the following features of society. Firstly, equal opportunities are still a myth, the initial social and property inequality gives young people from different strata initially unequal starting opportunities due to the different accessibility of education, medicine and other benefits, plus the associated unequal access to more prestigious and high paying professions. It is easier for a young man from the top to become, say, a doctor than for someone from a family of seasonal workers. Secondly, the amount of wages is determined by a fork from a certain vital minimum to "reproduction of the labor force", that is, such a value that allows you to support a family, raise children, pay for the necessary "services" from education to medical care. Roughly speaking, no amount of diligence and frugality will help a working person to gain prosperity if conditions are created when he is forced to work for food.

The phenomenon of “working poverty” is familiar to us from teachers, doctors and other qualified workers with higher education, doomed to work on the salary that their ministries give them. A full-fledged labor market, like any other, can only exist within the framework of a “many buyers - many sellers” situation, that is, only when collusion cannot take place by definition. Historical practice shows that this is not the case.

An important consequence of the theory of Malthus is the concept of the "Malthusian trap" - the main scarecrow of all the followers of this thinker, any stop in development, and even more so a systemic crisis, as a rule, is accompanied by such Alamir reasoning.
The Malthusian trap is a basic model of Malthusianism whereby population growth eventually outpaces food production growth.

The upper graph shows the dynamics of the growth of the planet's population (blue - growth according to the Malthus hypothesis, red - real values). The bottom graph shows the yield per hectare of rye (blue color - Malthus' assumptions).

If in the long term there is neither an increase in food production per capita, nor an improvement in the living conditions of the vast majority of the population, but, on the contrary, remains at a level close to the level of the vital minimum, then when a critical density is reached, the population, as a rule, is thinned out by catastrophic depopulations - like wars, epidemics, or famines.

Strictly speaking, the contradiction between population growth and the inability to provide it with an appropriate social product becomes an objective basis for changing the technological and social structure. By the end of the 19th century, there was a crisis of agrarian and agrarian-industrial societies, such as the Russian Empire and Japan: regular malnutrition of the lower classes, and even hunger, were the norm. A way out was found in the agrarian-industrial transition (in Soviet historiography it was designated as an industrial revolution). Large mechanized peasant farms were formed, using the achievements of agrochemistry. But in the process there was a far from painless collapse of the centuries-old monarchies: the Russian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungary, the end overtook the Qin Empire in China.

Somewhere similar processes took place in Western Europe when the feudal system was replaced by a capitalist one: a small glaciation, which caused a chain of crop failures, required a change in the economic and social paradigm.
Based on these considerations, the "Malthusian trap" can be attributed to an attempt to formulate a situation of a systemic crisis in society, when further linear development by inertia is impossible for objective reasons. The main drawback of the Malthusians is that they, by definition, do not see the possibility of a way out of the crisis by changing the model.
Let us illustrate the inconsistency of this approach by comparing how the agrarian-industrial transition affected both the population and productivity (blue lines are Malthus' forecast, red lines are actual development). Historically, the way out of any systemic crisis, including the Malthus Trap, lies not in cutting off consumption, but in changing the model.

Necessary additions to understanding the context of Malthus' worldview are Protestant ethics and the American concept of white Protestants - the idea of ​​a "city on a hill".
The side of the Protestant worldview that interests us, namely the "Protestant work ethic" is a religiously rich representation of the virtue of labor, the need to work conscientiously and diligently. For it is through the remuneration for labor that “the grace of the Lord” is manifested, and by the degree of remuneration one can determine the degree of pleasing to God. Hence the ideals preached by Malthus: diligence and frugality, it is thanks to them, according to the Protestants, that one can receive a reward. According to M. Weber, the economic rise and development of European and American capitalism was explained by the presence of Protestant ethics. Doing business not only for the sake of increasing personal consumption, but as a virtuous activity. At the same time, M. Weber emphasized the asceticism of Protestant entrepreneurs, many of whom were alien to ostentatious luxury and intoxication with power, and who considered wealth only as evidence of a well-fulfilled duty to God. From the point of view of Weber, the criterion of the usefulness of professional activity is, first of all, its profitability: “If God shows you this path, following which you can, without harming your soul and without harming others, legally earn more than on any or any other path, and you reject it and choose a less profitable path, then you thereby hinder one of the goals of your calling, you refuse to be the steward of God and accept his gifts in order to be able to use them for His good when He wills . Not for the pleasures of the flesh and sinful joys, but for God you should work and grow rich.”

In America, which was built by Protestants with a bright admixture of religious zeal, like a "City on a Hill." They hoped to build a "City on a Hill" in New England, an ideal society. Since then, Americans have considered the history of their country as the greatest experiment, a worthy example for other countries. The most common denomination of Protestants in America, the Puritans, believed that the state should enforce religious morality. They severely punished heretics, libertines, drunkards. Although they themselves sought religious freedom, the Puritans were characterized by extreme intolerance in matters of morality. In 1636, the English priest Roger Williams left Massachusetts and created the colony of Rhode Island, based on the principles of religious freedom and separation of church and state. These two principles were later enshrined in the American Constitution.

And having built, as it seemed to them, an ideal society, the Americans, as a society, believed in the superiority of their society over others, which they can and have the right to indicate to others. It is on this conviction that the American idea of ​​"own exceptionalism" is based.
Having traced this connection, in conclusion, we note that the ideas of Malthus organically adjoin the Protestant ethics and, in many respects, as an essential basis, enter the worldview of the modern Anglo-Saxon part of the Western elite.

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834) entered the history of economic science thanks to the development several important issues: the theory of reproduction, the theory of value, as well as the law that governs the dynamics of wages ("iron law of wages"). However, the most widely known book brought him - "Essay on the Law of Population" (1798), where he formulated and substantiated this law. The book was released anonymously and drew "innumerable attacks" from the scientific community. Five years later, he published the second edition of his book, which, according to A. Marshall, was built "on such a large number of facts and on such a careful selection of them that he can claim a place among the founders of historical and economic science."

Malthus argued that poverty is not the result of bad government, the wrong distribution of wealth, etc., but the result of an objective cause - the action of the eternal natural law, according to which food production grows in arithmetic proportion, and the population - in geometric proportion (doubling every twenty-five years). Insufficient growth in food production T. Malthus associated with the action "Law of Diminishing Fertility". As a result of this law, a gap between the needs of society for food products is permanently revealed. In other words, all the disasters of the unsecured population, poverty stem from the natural laws of nature and cannot be eliminated on the basis of the implementation of certain projects for the restructuring of society. T. Malthus believed that humanity faces an alternative: either it will oppose the instinct of procreation, natural to all animals, voluntary abstinence (voluntary self-restraint), or population growth will be restrained by the devastating consequences of poverty - epidemics, diseases, wars, malnutrition, increased mortality. T. Malthus saw a way out of this situation in one thing - a reduction in population growth. The idea of ​​Malthus suggested to Charles Darwin the idea of ​​natural selection in the animal world. However, in relation to human society, it was naturally assessed by the public as inhumane.

T. Malthus saw the resolution of the contradiction between a too rapid increase in the population and a slow growth in food production in a reduction in the birth rate based either on the observance of moral principles by people, voluntary self-restraint, or restrictive measures on the part of the state.

Assessing the theory of population of T. Malthus, one should pay attention to the fact that, firstly, as historical experience shows, with an increase in the material and cultural level of peoples, the birth rate decreases without introducing any restrictive measures or moral requirements and, secondly, technical progress in food production allows for a significant increase in their growth rates.

. "IRON LAW OF WAGES" T. MALTHUS

Malthus entered the history of economic science with a number of theoretical propositions he put forward (on population dynamics, on value, on reproduction, etc.). Among them, an important place is occupied by the law of population "iron law of wages".

The level of wages of an employee, according to T. Malthus, varies depending on the population (the number of people who act in the labor market as sellers of their labor).

The price of labor(Malthus proceeded from the fact that the hired worker sells his labor), that is, wages constantly fluctuate. If the population increases, the wage per worker decreases. The downward trend in wages testifies to "overpopulation"- the emergence of "surplus population". The salary of one worker is reduced to the subsistence level, i.e., to a level that allows the employee to satisfy his needs (and the needs of his family) at a minimum level. If the level of wages is lower and the worker cannot provide for himself and his family even a beggarly existence, the population decreases due to natural causes. The fall in the population leads to a decrease in supply in the labor market, and the average wage begins to rise. In this way, its value is automatically regulated on the basis of the “iron law of wages”.

Malthus T. R.

Cons of the theory from a modern point of view:

• Malthus used an incorrect one (does not take into account ).
• Malthus does not take into account the natural biological mechanisms of self-regulation of the human population, leading to.
• Law of diminishing soil fertility. Malthus believed that neither accumulation nor compensate for the limited natural resources.

Followers and development

The ideas of Malthus had a powerful positive impact on the development of biology, firstly, through their influence on Darwin, and, secondly, through the development of mathematical models of population biology based on them, starting with the logistic model of Verhulst.

As applied to human society, Malthus's view that contraction leads to an increase in the average income per capita led to the formation in the theory of the optimal population size, at which income per capita is maximum. However, at present, the theory is of little use in solving real socio-economic problems, but it is good in analytics, as it allows one to judge about under- or overpopulation.

The English economist Thomas Malthus, who was also a priest, in 1798 published the book "An Essay on the Law of Population ...". In his scientific work, the scientist made an attempt to explain the patterns of fertility, marriage, mortality, the socio-demographic structure of the world's population in terms of biological factors. Malthus's ideas are used in other sciences, including economic theory and political economy. The theory that arose on the basis of scientific works and the concept of the researcher was called Malthusianism.

The main theses of the theory

The concept of population developed by Malthus is not based on social laws, but on biological factors. The main provisions of the theory of a scientist from England are as follows:

• The population of our planet is growing exponentially.
• The production of food, money, resources, without which human life is impossible, occurs in accordance with the principles of arithmetic progression.
• The growth of the world's population is directly related to the laws of reproduction that exist in nature. It is growth that determines the level of well-being of society.
• The vital activity of human society, its development, functioning are subject to the laws of nature.
• Human physical resources must be used in order to increase the amount of food.
• In their development and existence, the inhabitants of the Earth are limited by means of subsistence.
• Only war, famine, epidemics, and diseases can stop the growth of the population on the planet.

The last thesis Malthus tried to develop further, arguing that overpopulation is still unavoidable. Famine and epidemics, according to the scientist, are not able to fully cope with the problems of population growth. Therefore, it is necessary to create additional tools to regulate the increase in the number of inhabitants on the planet. In particular, it was proposed to regulate the birth rate as much as possible and regulate the number of marriages, ignore the need of couples for children, and create their own families. At the end of the 18th - beginning of the 19th centuries. such statements were quite radical and did not align with the declared family principles in most countries of the world. The primary problem was to limit the number of children born in families. Conservative societies in England, France, the USA, Russia did not particularly limit the number of children in newly created families. But such a principle was adopted by the Chinese government in the 1970s, when the policy of “one child, one family” was proclaimed. Such controlled birth planning began to bear fruit only after 20 years, but disproportions in the sex structure appeared. More boys were born, and fewer girls. Because of this, men could not find a mate to start a family. Since 2016, it has been allowed to have two children in one family, but no more. An exception is cases of multiple pregnancy.

What didn't Malthus consider?

When developing his theory, the scientist did not take into account many factors that affect the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the population process. These factors include:

• Incorrect statistics regarding migration processes. In particular, emigrants, who had a significant impact on migration, were not taken into account at all.
• The existing mechanisms of self-regulation of the number of inhabitants on planet Earth were discarded, which make it possible to carry out the demographic transition.
• The law that characterizes the decrease in soil fertility
• Reducing the area that is cultivated to produce resources and food. For example, in traditional societies of gatherers and hunters, the area for finding food is larger than that of a peasant who cultivates a garden.
• The participation of the state in the process of regulating demographic processes was discarded. The scientist believed that such an intervention would have negative consequences, since the existing mechanisms of self-regulation would be destroyed.

Further development of the views of Malthus

• Emphasis was placed on demographic issues.
• The possibility that the adoption of social legislation could control population growth was discarded.
• Economic and social doctrines began to be developed that dealt with population issues.
• In further works, Malthus tried to further substantiate the impact of demographic changes on the stability of social and social development.
• The scientist connected and searched for the interdependence of natural and economic factors. The British scientist believed that population affects the economic stability and balance of society, causing problems with resources and their production.
• Malthus agreed that a large number of inhabitants is one of the conditions for social and economic wealth. But at the same time, he emphasized that the population should be of high quality, healthy and strong in many respects. Obtaining able-bodied residents is hindered by the desire to reproduce the family, to give birth. This natural desire goes against the amount of food, water, resources that humanity has at its disposal.
• The main mechanism of self-regulation is the limited means and resources. If their number will grow, then the population on the planet should increase.
• Malthus also argued that the growth in the number of inhabitants on Earth causes the development of immorality, the level of morality decreases, vices appear, emergencies and other misfortunes arise.

Evolution of the theory

They highlight the classic concept that emphasizes that all attempts to increase people's livelihood will end in failure, since consumers will still appear again and again; and neo-Malthusianism. The current arose in the late 1890s, and was represented by unions, societies and various leagues. The main provisions of the updated concept of Malthus were:

• Families can be created, but without children.
• The social impact of social factors on demographic processes is recognized.
• The biological component in the birth rate and reproduction of the population is brought to the fore.
• Economic and social transformations are relegated to the background.